Election predictions are tricky business
In the News
MARK ROSMAN
Anyone who wants to get into the game of predicting the outcome of elections should keep in mind the words of thoroughbred horse trainer Rick Dutrow who pretty much guaranteed that his horse Big Brown would win the Belmont Stakes on June 5 and with it the Triple Crown.

Last I looked, Big Brown was still heading for home on the Belmont track after the other eight horses in the field had crossed the finish line. I'm not knocking Dutrow for being a bit brash, but it just goes to show you that it's a good idea to run the race even if you know who's going to win.

Predicting the outcome of political races is just as tricky, especially on the local level. There may be many factors that go into winning a local election and one of those factors, in my opinion, is luck. I am certain that some people who go to the polls don't have a clue who is running for local office and just pull levers based on what political party a candidate is in or the sound of the candidate's name.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. When voters in Manalapan go to the polls in November the following people will be running for two seats on the Township Committee: Roth, Holland, Green and Garcia.

No, I'm not talking about Hyman Roth, Jools Holland, Moe Green and Jerry Garcia. The candidates are, in fact, Democrats Michelle Roth and Don Holland, and Republicans Ryan Green and Bill Garcia. But none of that will matter to some voters.

What matters is who is at the top of the ticket, in this case presidential candidates Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

Consider these numbers.

In 2004, the last presidential election year, Republicans Joe Locricchio, with 8,852 votes, and Andrew Lucas, 8,550 votes, defeated Democrats Michelle Roth, 6,546 votes, and Beth Ward, 6,488 votes, to win a pair of seats on the Manalapan Township Committee. In the presidential vote in Manalapan, Republican George W. Bush outpolled Democrat John Kerry, 8,687 to 7,544.

It is not difficult to see where Locricchio and Lucas got their support. They got it from people who vote once every four years when a presidential election is on the ballot and Bush was riding the wave of the war in Iraq, which at that time was less than 2 years old.

A year later, in 2005, the vote totals in Manalapan dropped significantly. Democrats Anthony Gennaro, with 5,261 votes, and Michelle Roth, 5,243 votes, won election to the committee over Republicans Peter Hall, 4,749 votes, and Miracle Torregrossa, 4,700 votes. Where were all those Republican votes from a year earlier? Sleeping, I suppose.

More residents in Manalapan continued to lose interest in the local election in 2006, when one seat on the committee was up for grabs. That November, Democrat Richard Klauber, with 5,147 votes, was elected to the governing body over Republican Nikole Pezzullo, 4,387 votes.

In 2007 the winning vote totals in the local race were even lower in Manalapan. There was one twist in the race, however, as residents had their choice not only of two Democrats and two Republicans, but an independent candidate who was on the ballot. That independent wild card could have played a role in the outcome of the election.

Republicans Andrew Lucas, with 3,053 votes, and Susan Cohen, 2,956 votes, captured seats on the Township Committee as they defeated Democrats Herbert Barrack, 2,592 votes, and Drew Shapiro, 2,568 votes, and independent Joe DePasquale, 1,517 votes.

So now we come to another presidential election year. The candidates running for local office will try to convince Manalapan voters that their platform is the right one to carry the township over the next three years.

Michelle Roth is the only incumbent running. She will state what she believes her accomplishments to be; Don Holland, who has served on several municipal boards, will explain why he is ready to move up to the town's governing body; Ryan Green, a current member of the Manalapan-Englishtown Regional School District Board of Education, will make his case for the switch from one public body to another; and Bill Garcia, a relative newcomer to town, will present his qualifications to the electorate.

Some Manalapan residents will pay attention to what the candidates say and vote with certainty for the people they believe will best serve the township.

Thousands more Manalapan residents will not pay one bit of attention to the race for Township Committee. Those people will go out on Election Day and vote for non-specific change (Obama) or what some people claim will be more of the same (McCain). As those levers get pulled, so will go the local election.

So good luck to anyone who may try to predict whether Roth's record in office merits re-election, or says that Green overstepped his bounds by running for the school board in April and for the Township Committee in November, or whether Garcia has lived in Manalapan long enough to know what's going on here, or that Holland is ready to sit on the governing body.

No one, and I mean no one, knows for certain how it will all turn out - in Manalapan, or in Washington, D.C., and that's why they run the race - as Big Brown and Rick Dutrow learned a few Saturdays ago.

Mark Rosman is the managing editor of the News Transcript.