FRHSD faces decisions on enrollment numbers
HHS, FTHS projected to be over capacity within next few years
BY LARRY HLAVENKA JR.
Correspondent

Based on a demographer's five-year enrollment projections, the Freehold Regional High School District should undergo a slight decline in overall enrollment.

The projections that were presented by demographer Stan Slachetka of T&M Associates, Middletown, means that the large annual enrollment growth the district had seen in recent years has leveled off. Slachetka offered the firm's findings to the FRHSD Board of Education at its June 4 meeting at Freehold High School, Freehold Borough.

Superintendent of Schools James Wasser welcomed the news which all but closed the door on the district needing to construct a seventh high school. Over the last three years Wasser met with officials from the district's eight sending municipalities and discussed potential parcels of land that could accommodate another high school, given the district's surging enrollment. With large tracts of land hard to come by, Wasser nixed the idea of a seventh high school last year, but worried that more students could hamstring the district.

Those fears were never realized and in the immediate future, according to Slachetka, the enrollment of the district will remain steady.

"We have actually seen a significant diminishing of residential development activity and that's one of things that drives enrollments," Slachetka said while explaining the plateau in new arrivals. "The percentages are either flat or negative and our current projections are a continuation of that trend. There's not going to be much growth, if any, in the regional high school district."

The actual number of students in the FRHSD for the current 2006-07 school year is 11,611.

Recent information provided by the district indicated that 11,750 students are expected to be enrolled during the 2007-08 school year.

At the end of the projections provided by Slachetka, the enrollment in 2011-12 is expected to be 11,538 students. Slachetka reminded the board members and those in attendance that the numbers remain estimates and could change with any shift in the regional or national economy or the state's decision on how to revamp municipalities' affordable housing obligations.

When T&M Associates made enrollment projections for the district in 2005 for the 2005-06 and 2006-07 school years, the actual enrollment proved to be less than the firm projected (approximately 200 fewer students than projected in 2005-06 and

100 fewer students than projected in 2006-07).

Slachetka also reported that during the next five years all six schools will operate under 100 percent total capacity. Only Freehold Township High School (in the 2007-12 school years) and Howell High School (2008-12) are projected to exceed the 85 percent "functional capacity" benchmark.

At the projections' highest point, Freehold Township is estimated to be 133 students over functional capacity in 2008-09. Enrollment at the school is expected to decline afterward.

The picture remains murkier for Howell. While the school will remain under its functional capacity in 2007-08, enrollment is expected to balloon to 254 students over functional capacity in 2009-10 and to 260 students over functional capacity in 2010-11.

Most likely, district officials will look to remedy those numbers, possibly through attendance area changes, in an effort to ensure that all six schools are able to operate under their functional capacity. Wasser said the board will make any decision regarding attendance area changes at least one year in advance to implementing the change.

In September 2005, due to overcrowding at Colts Neck High School and Freehold Township, the board voted to shift more than 200 students to different schools than under previous assignment criteria. The plan approved by the board sent 121 Howell incoming ninth-graders and four Farmingdale incoming ninth-graders to Howell instead of Colts Neck beginning in September 2006 and lasting for their high school careers. The board also voted to send 80 to 100 incoming ninth-graders from Manalapan and Englishtown to Manalapan High School instead of to Freehold Township beginning in September 2006 and lasting for their high school careers.

Those decisions brought angry parents to board meetings and led to an appeal of the action by Howell municipal officials. Eventually, a judge denied Howell's appeal of the change in attendance areas.

Slachetka said last week that district officials made the right decision then and must act once again.

"Basically your solution that you had to address an immediate need and concern worked over the course of the last two years, but it looks like you're going to need some subsequent changes and policy decisions," he said. "The good news is that you have the time do that."

Ironically, Colts Neck is projected to dip far below its functional capacity (1,748 students) to 1,548 students in 2007-08, followed by a substantial decline of 200 students per year in 2008-09 and 2009-10. If the demographer's projections hold true, the school will bottom out at 1,158 students in 2011-12, nearly 600 fewer students than functional capacity.

Given the projections regarding the functional capacity at Freehold Township and Howell, two residents in attendance pushed the board to take action.

Freehold resident Audrey Schiereck said, "It doesn't seem fair to me that students in two towns are over capacity when others are under."

Howell resident Rob Nicastro did not want the board to wait until overcrowding becomes a problem at Howell.

"It's like putting a band-aid on a gaping wound for Howell Township," he said. "You should act now and not wait."

Wasser said residents are welcome to come to board meetings to discuss these issues. He said the June 4 meeting was "not the end of the discussion, there are no decisions being made." He acknowledged that board members and district administrators will have decisions to make in the future regarding the schools' enrollment projections.

"We do have to balance again," Wasser said. "It is a concern, how to solve it. I'm not a miracle-worker, I welcome the input of people with more expertise in this. The good thing we have going for us now is this leveling-off. Three or four years ago we were talking about (building) a seventh high school."

Copies of the T&M Associates enrollment projections will be made available on the district's Internet Web site, www.frhsd.com.